#65 Grand Canyon (15-5)

avg: 1645.05  •  sd: 71.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
374 Cal Poly-SLO-C** Win 13-4 888.4 Ignored Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
350 California-San Diego-B** Win 13-2 1036.28 Ignored Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
211 UCLA-B Win 13-7 1582.83 Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
173 California-Davis Win 13-6 1782.36 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
84 Southern California Win 13-5 2119.35 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
46 Stanford Loss 3-13 1165.36 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
120 Arizona State Win 11-6 1912.62 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
136 California-Irvine Win 9-7 1599.56 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
124 San Jose State Win 12-7 1879.45 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
237 Loyola Marymount** Win 13-4 1525.37 Ignored Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
84 Southern California Win 12-11 1644.35 Feb 16th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
109 San Diego State Win 8-7 1553.77 Feb 16th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
120 Arizona State Win 11-7 1832.81 Apr 13th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2025
249 Northern Arizona Win 15-10 1339.16 Apr 13th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2025
6 Cal Poly-SLO** Loss 5-15 1667.97 Ignored Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
9 California-Santa Cruz Loss 9-15 1669.66 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
109 San Diego State Win 12-7 1949.28 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
84 Southern California Win 11-10 1644.35 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
41 California-San Diego Loss 14-15 1667.31 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
46 Stanford Loss 5-15 1165.36 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)