#33 Elon (24-5)

avg: 1842.66  •  sd: 48.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
64 Georgetown Win 13-10 1973.85 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
28 Virginia Loss 12-13 1757.08 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
21 Georgia Tech Loss 9-13 1579.93 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Loss 10-13 1234.24 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
77 Ohio State Win 13-8 2084.23 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
64 Georgetown Win 14-11 1959.05 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
116 Denver Win 11-1 1984.14 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
256 Illinois-B** Win 11-2 1460.82 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
178 Ohio** Win 10-4 1766.75 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
198 North Carolina-B** Win 11-0 1676.19 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
142 Davidson Win 13-9 1710.01 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
116 Denver Win 9-4 1984.14 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
162 Brandeis** Win 13-4 1828.22 Ignored Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
241 Xavier** Win 13-4 1513.28 Ignored Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
81 Rochester Win 13-5 2155.12 Mar 1st D III River City Showdown 2025
139 Puget Sound Win 13-3 1905.31 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
67 Franciscan Loss 9-10 1513.25 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
81 Rochester Win 12-8 1996.28 Mar 2nd D III River City Showdown 2025
133 Bates Win 13-5 1925.44 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
179 Dickinson** Win 13-1 1766.25 Ignored Mar 29th Easterns 2025
75 Wesleyan Loss 11-13 1370.52 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
170 Messiah Win 13-6 1795.06 Mar 29th Easterns 2025
36 Middlebury Win 14-10 2217.67 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
76 Williams Win 13-12 1717.52 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
75 Wesleyan Win 15-13 1813.54 Mar 30th Easterns 2025
142 Davidson Win 13-6 1891.44 Apr 12th Atlantic Coast D III Mens Conferences 2025
277 Salisbury** Win 15-2 1379.58 Ignored Apr 12th Atlantic Coast D III Mens Conferences 2025
282 Navy** Win 15-4 1363.93 Ignored Apr 12th Atlantic Coast D III Mens Conferences 2025
78 Richmond Win 15-10 2036.07 Apr 13th Atlantic Coast D III Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)