#299 California-Santa Barbara-B (3-12)

avg: 687.76  •  sd: 44.74  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
216 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 10-12 777.43 Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
127 Santa Clara** Loss 5-12 741.61 Ignored Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
84 Southern California Loss 6-13 919.35 Feb 1st Pres Day Quals men
91 Cal Poly-CCWR** Loss 2-13 893.01 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
374 Cal Poly-SLO-C Win 13-6 888.4 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
350 California-San Diego-B Win 9-5 965.34 Feb 2nd Pres Day Quals men
109 San Diego State** Loss 3-13 828.77 Ignored Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
124 San Jose State** Loss 2-13 758.94 Ignored Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
211 UCLA-B Loss 7-12 504.78 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
211 UCLA-B Loss 7-13 467.76 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
199 Occidental Loss 1-13 475.05 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
119 Cal Poly-SLO-B** Loss 2-13 767.2 Ignored Apr 12th Southwest Dev Mens Conferences 2025
279 California-B Loss 7-9 497.97 Apr 12th Southwest Dev Mens Conferences 2025
376 San Diego State-B Win 12-4 866.51 Apr 12th Southwest Dev Mens Conferences 2025
211 UCLA-B Loss 10-13 697.15 Apr 13th Southwest Dev Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)