#15 Pennsylvania (8-6)

avg: 1887.79  •  sd: 71.12  •  top 16/20: 93.1%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
2 North Carolina Loss 7-12 1883.13 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
9 Michigan Loss 11-15 1677.49 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
14 Georgia Win 14-10 2296.52 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
18 Ohio State Loss 10-11 1720.53 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
61 Florida** Win 13-5 1815.8 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
21 Washington University Loss 10-11 1625.09 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
107 MIT** Win 13-0 1313.29 Ignored Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
64 James Madison Win 9-4 1750.57 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
47 Georgia Tech Win 13-4 1951.59 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
68 Connecticut** Win 12-5 1719.42 Ignored Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
22 North Carolina State Win 10-7 2113.69 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
6 Tufts Loss 8-9 2100.03 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
16 Notre Dame Loss 7-10 1497.86 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
18 Ohio State Win 10-8 2108.19 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)