#138 Illinois (6-8)

avg: -54.34  •  sd: 72.08  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
142 Vanderbilt Win 11-7 -44.41 Feb 10th College Womens Huckfest
145 Alabama-Birmingham** Win 10-3 -560.43 Ignored Feb 10th College Womens Huckfest
101 Union (Tennessee)** Loss 3-11 166.15 Ignored Feb 10th College Womens Huckfest
132 Cincinnati Loss 6-10 -274.37 Feb 11th College Womens Huckfest
143 Alabama Win 11-5 -93.66 Feb 11th College Womens Huckfest
104 Alabama-Huntsville** Loss 1-11 139.97 Ignored Feb 11th College Womens Huckfest
132 Cincinnati Loss 5-7 -106.35 Feb 11th College Womens Huckfest
131 Tennessee-Chattanooga Loss 5-8 -195.92 Feb 24th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
101 Union (Tennessee)** Loss 4-11 166.15 Ignored Feb 24th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
144 Georgia-B** Win 10-3 -294.13 Ignored Feb 24th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
137 Emory Win 7-4 451.56 Feb 24th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
86 Tennessee** Loss 3-14 291.91 Ignored Feb 25th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
141 Auburn Win 13-2 165.47 Feb 25th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
137 Emory Loss 7-9 -323.94 Feb 25th The Only Tenn I See Memorial Tournament
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)