#11 Oregon State (22-12)

avg: 2135.73  •  sd: 51.27  •  top 16/20: 99.6%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
2 Oregon Loss 14-15 2260.23 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
83 Simon Fraser Win 15-2 2142.33 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
23 Western Washington Win 15-12 2288.77 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
2 Oregon Loss 10-15 1931.62 Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
224 Oregon-B** Win 15-4 1576.39 Ignored Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
23 Western Washington Win 15-12 2288.77 Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
31 California-Santa Barbara Win 11-6 2408.57 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
9 California-Santa Cruz Loss 9-10 2060.14 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
42 Colorado State Win 13-9 2203.32 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
6 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 9-13 1849.41 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
13 California Win 12-10 2341.76 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
41 California-San Diego Win 11-10 1917.31 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
46 Stanford Win 13-7 2322.9 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
16 Northeastern Win 13-12 2181.69 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
2 Oregon Loss 11-13 2156.39 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
17 Brown Win 15-13 2269.44 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
3 Carleton College Loss 9-11 2115.49 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
20 Vermont Win 10-9 2153.48 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
82 Tennessee Win 13-9 1964.53 Mar 1st Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
4 North Carolina Loss 11-15 1978.66 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
16 Northeastern Win 15-14 2181.69 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
2 Oregon Loss 12-15 2084.74 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2025
7 Brigham Young Loss 14-15 2121.17 Mar 21st Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
25 Victoria Win 14-13 2083.85 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
54 UCLA Loss 14-15 1579.08 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
23 Western Washington Win 15-14 2113.28 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
32 Utah State Win 15-10 2305.76 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
8 Washington Win 15-12 2517.08 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
23 Western Washington Win 15-13 2202.46 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025 mens
2 Oregon Loss 9-13 1966.66 Apr 19th Cascadia D I Mens Conferences 2025
378 Portland State** Win 13-2 858.56 Ignored Apr 19th Cascadia D I Mens Conferences 2025
25 Victoria Win 12-10 2196.97 Apr 19th Cascadia D I Mens Conferences 2025
10 British Columbia Win 15-13 2366.11 Apr 20th Cascadia D I Mens Conferences 2025
2 Oregon Loss 10-15 1931.62 Apr 20th Cascadia D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)