#59 William & Mary (20-17)

avg: 1727.3  •  sd: 48.35  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
102 Connecticut Win 10-9 1620.12 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
75 Dartmouth Loss 9-10 1487.49 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
92 Pennsylvania Win 13-7 2096.9 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
307 Mary Washington Win 13-7 1240.69 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
141 Boston University Win 13-6 1942.31 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
77 Carnegie Mellon Win 12-11 1732.47 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
65 Richmond Loss 13-14 1549.99 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
79 Case Western Reserve Win 12-10 1833.82 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
152 Harvard Loss 10-13 983.1 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
31 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 13-14 1795.89 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
16 Penn State Loss 11-14 1834.89 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 13-12 1753.65 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
51 Missouri Loss 6-9 1346.32 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
35 Ohio State Loss 10-13 1575.1 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 10-12 1608.64 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
103 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-6 2091.64 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
56 Temple Loss 10-11 1618.67 Feb 24th Easterns Qualifier 2024
74 Cincinnati Loss 4-11 1014 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
28 Georgia Tech Loss 9-11 1738.81 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
164 Kennesaw State Win 13-10 1597.27 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
44 Virginia Tech Win 12-11 1939.41 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2024
72 Appalachian State Win 12-9 1974.02 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
50 Duke Loss 12-15 1472.02 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
89 Florida State Win 15-6 2151.28 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga Win 15-9 2034.42 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
50 Duke Loss 13-15 1558.34 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
54 Emory Win 15-14 1880.32 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
70 James Madison Loss 10-11 1508.19 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
104 Liberty Win 13-10 1818.87 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
202 George Mason** Win 13-3 1716.33 Ignored Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
204 Virginia Commonwealth** Win 15-6 1707.98 Ignored Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
44 Virginia Tech Loss 7-11 1347.51 Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
72 Appalachian State Loss 12-13 1503.65 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
50 Duke Win 15-9 2288 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
70 James Madison Win 15-9 2148.67 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
14 North Carolina State Loss 10-15 1717.87 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
64 Maryland Win 7-6 1802.89 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)