#77 Carnegie Mellon (18-12)

avg: 1607.47  •  sd: 52.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
148 Johns Hopkins Win 13-8 1811.28 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
104 Liberty Win 12-9 1836.09 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
166 RIT Win 11-8 1633.43 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
70 James Madison Loss 6-12 1053.88 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
59 William & Mary Loss 11-12 1602.3 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
103 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-9 1910.21 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
70 James Madison Win 8-7 1758.19 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 11-8 1681.48 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
150 West Chester Win 13-6 1914.53 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
162 Rutgers Win 11-8 1648.15 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
85 Cornell Loss 12-13 1450.01 Mar 3rd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
162 Rutgers Win 9-7 1561.88 Mar 3rd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
147 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 13-9 1734.43 Mar 3rd Oak Creek Challenge 2024
64 Maryland Loss 13-15 1463.71 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
54 Emory Loss 12-15 1454.83 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
56 Temple Win 13-12 1868.67 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
64 Maryland Loss 10-11 1552.89 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
72 Appalachian State Loss 11-15 1247.49 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
65 Richmond Win 14-13 1799.99 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
6 Pittsburgh Loss 8-13 1836.66 Apr 20th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
212 West Virginia Win 12-7 1600.01 Apr 20th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
319 Edinboro** Win 13-4 1254.16 Ignored Apr 20th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
16 Penn State Loss 4-13 1548.22 Apr 20th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
417 Slippery Rock** Win 13-2 600 Ignored Apr 21st West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
212 West Virginia Win 15-10 1533.11 Apr 21st West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
16 Penn State Loss 10-15 1694.62 Apr 21st West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2024
92 Pennsylvania Loss 11-15 1158.2 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
194 Ohio Win 15-7 1742.62 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
97 Lehigh Win 15-12 1826.83 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
79 Case Western Reserve Loss 12-14 1374.74 May 4th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)