#104 Liberty (16-12)

avg: 1490.72  •  sd: 45.74  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
77 Carnegie Mellon Loss 9-12 1262.1 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
148 Johns Hopkins Win 9-8 1440.12 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
65 Richmond Loss 7-12 1154.48 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
166 RIT Win 13-9 1686.39 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
102 Connecticut Loss 10-12 1257 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
92 Pennsylvania Win 11-8 1904.97 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
307 Mary Washington Win 12-9 1028.52 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
110 Davenport Win 12-8 1908.72 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
241 Wake Forest Win 13-2 1586.99 Feb 17th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
84 Elon Loss 9-11 1327.23 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
198 Messiah Win 13-7 1686.53 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
127 Pittsburgh-B Win 11-9 1637.94 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1 2024
306 High Point** Win 13-0 1292.5 Ignored Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
164 Kennesaw State Win 10-9 1394.13 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
114 Davidson Loss 9-10 1312.27 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
215 East Carolina Win 12-2 1665.59 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
98 Georgia State Loss 7-10 1131.16 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
325 South Carolina-B** Win 11-1 1220.93 Ignored Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
70 James Madison Loss 9-11 1383.98 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
59 William & Mary Loss 10-13 1399.16 Apr 20th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
202 George Mason Win 12-9 1461.69 Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
204 Virginia Commonwealth Win 10-5 1681.88 Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
44 Virginia Tech Loss 4-13 1214.41 Apr 21st Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2024
50 Duke Win 15-14 1897.52 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
14 North Carolina State Loss 8-15 1606.66 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
42 South Carolina Loss 9-15 1331.29 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
64 Maryland Loss 13-15 1463.71 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
70 James Madison Win 7-6 1758.19 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)