#181 American (12-13)

avg: 1155.01  •  sd: 61.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
59 James Madison Loss 6-11 1123.03 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
172 East Carolina Loss 9-10 1059.39 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
88 Carnegie Mellon Loss 6-12 927.26 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
92 Yale Loss 8-12 1049.07 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
236 Virginia Commonwealth Win 12-6 1505.97 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
154 Johns Hopkins Loss 8-10 993.67 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
172 East Carolina Loss 6-12 605.08 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
329 Villanova Win 12-6 1156.19 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
232 George Washington Win 8-7 1065.66 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
298 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 10-7 1090.03 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
140 George Mason Loss 10-11 1179.92 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
154 Johns Hopkins Win 13-5 1856.34 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
172 East Carolina Win 12-9 1529.76 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
179 Dickinson Loss 8-12 725.09 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
401 George Washington-B** Win 14-5 626.88 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
69 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 6-11 1072.28 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
170 Messiah Win 14-13 1320.06 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
115 RIT Loss 12-15 1083.73 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
140 George Mason Win 15-11 1686.09 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
64 Georgetown Loss 5-14 1045.71 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
161 Delaware Loss 6-10 734.2 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
232 George Washington Win 9-8 1065.66 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
207 Towson Win 14-8 1575.24 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
154 Johns Hopkins Loss 9-12 910.97 Apr 13th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
232 George Washington Win 14-11 1254 Apr 13th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)