#154 Johns Hopkins (14-17)

avg: 1256.34  •  sd: 61.32  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
39 Cincinnati Loss 2-13 1211.62 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
70 Dartmouth Loss 3-13 1018.5 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
140 George Mason Loss 8-9 1179.92 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
181 American Win 10-8 1417.67 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
105 Boston University Loss 4-15 849.66 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
167 Pennsylvania Win 11-4 1809.59 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
140 George Mason Loss 7-9 1025.58 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
236 Virginia Commonwealth Win 11-6 1473.36 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
298 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 9-6 1118.93 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
181 American Loss 5-13 555.01 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
172 East Carolina Loss 9-10 1059.39 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
232 George Washington Win 10-7 1330.33 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
97 SUNY-Buffalo Win 9-5 2003.69 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
94 Lehigh Win 5-3 1899.39 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
149 Rutgers Loss 3-13 678.67 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Loss 7-8 1437.39 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
51 Cornell Loss 5-13 1123.89 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
113 West Chester Win 11-8 1758.25 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
85 Boston College Loss 7-9 1236.86 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
113 West Chester Loss 8-11 1027.03 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
97 SUNY-Buffalo Loss 7-10 1084.97 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
248 NYU Win 9-8 1013.02 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
108 Columbia Loss 7-12 922.94 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
230 Harvard Win 14-7 1540.2 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
149 Rutgers Win 9-6 1697.23 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
64 Georgetown Loss 11-15 1264.54 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
298 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 10-4 1300.36 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
207 Towson Win 11-6 1585.9 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
55 Maryland Loss 7-12 1174.56 Apr 12th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
181 American Win 12-9 1500.37 Apr 13th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
161 Delaware Loss 8-10 967.69 Apr 13th Colonial D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)