#132 Pennsylvania (6-8)

avg: 866.57  •  sd: 73.1  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
80 Case Western Reserve Loss 8-9 1064.08 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
77 William & Mary Loss 7-13 647.54 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
85 Dartmouth Loss 7-10 741.49 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
197 Mary Washington Win 13-4 956.45 Jan 27th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
157 Virginia Commonwealth Win 15-0 1270.86 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
125 Liberty Loss 8-11 561.81 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
172 RIT Win 15-10 1019.98 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warm Up
167 Columbia Win 11-6 1158.06 Feb 5th New Jersey Warmup
91 Syracuse Loss 9-13 671.19 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
108 Princeton Loss 11-12 882.62 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
148 Rutgers Loss 7-12 210.08 Feb 10th New Jersey Warmup
108 Princeton Loss 13-14 882.62 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
178 NYU Win 13-9 945.21 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
167 Columbia Win 15-8 1176.18 Feb 11th New Jersey Warmup
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)