#12 Carleton College (24-11)

avg: 2224.62  •  sd: 52.52  •  top 16/20: 99.9%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
8 Brown Win 12-11 2401.39 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
85 Cornell Win 13-8 2071.17 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
46 Florida Win 13-11 2014.72 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
3 Georgia Win 11-10 2581.9 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
20 Washington University Win 13-7 2643.69 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 14-15 2114.55 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
18 Northeastern Win 15-14 2233.05 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2024
15 California Win 15-12 2457.96 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
9 Vermont Loss 9-13 1829.32 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 10-13 2158.19 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
32 Utah State Win 13-12 2033.9 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
8 Brown Loss 14-15 2151.39 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
4 Massachusetts Loss 14-15 2329.1 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
1 Colorado Loss 9-15 1984.25 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
17 Brigham Young Win 15-13 2334.81 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
33 California-Santa Cruz Win 15-10 2360.79 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
40 Victoria Win 15-12 2157.98 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
22 Washington Win 15-11 2414.65 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
1 Colorado Loss 6-15 1899.73 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
21 British Columbia Win 15-13 2264.07 Mar 24th Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
5 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 7-11 1929.96 Mar 24th Northwest Challenge Mens 2024
18 Northeastern Win 13-11 2336.89 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
14 North Carolina State Win 12-10 2409.6 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
42 South Carolina Win 13-6 2446.77 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
4 Massachusetts Win 12-11 2579.1 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
8 Brown Win 15-13 2490.57 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
5 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 12-15 2096.36 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
9 Vermont Loss 13-15 2033.71 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
11 Minnesota Win 15-14 2364.55 Apr 13th Northwoods D I Mens Conferences 2024
185 Minnesota-Duluth** Win 15-1 1777.59 Ignored Apr 13th Northwoods D I Mens Conferences 2024
368 Iowa State-B** Win 15-0 1000.66 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
140 Marquette** Win 15-2 1943.49 Ignored Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
63 Iowa Win 15-11 2067.86 Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 10-15 1785.94 Apr 28th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
36 Wisconsin Win 15-10 2347.51 Apr 28th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)